Single family to spur housing growth

A resurgence in single-family production will spur housing growth in 2014, but challenges to the ongoing recovery remain, according to economists.

“My single-family forecast for 2014 is pretty aggressive–822,000 starts which is likely 200,000 more than 2013,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, speaking at an NAHB conference in Las Vegas. “There are five key points to the turnaround. Consumers are back, pent-up demand is emerging, there is a growing need for new construction, distressed sales are diminishing and builders see it.”

Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are expected to rise in 2014, but not enough to harm affordability, according to Freddie Mac Vice President and Chief Economist Frank Nothaft.

“Regarding mortgage rates, we’ve gone from dirt cheap to cheap, and I think we will see a gradual rise of about a half a percentage point to 5 percent in 2014,” Nothaft said. But even at 5%, he said, “most markets will remain quite affordable.”

Household formations are on the rise, according to the NAHB. They’re currently averaging 620,000, up from 500,000 during the housing downturn. The U.S. was producing 1.4 million new households per year during the housing boom. New home sales, meanwhile, are averaging 8.7% of total sales. That’s still down considerably from the historical average of 16.1%.

But builder sentiment in the single-family market is generally good. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence in the single-family market, has been above 50 for the last eight months. Any score above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

The NAHB is predicting 1.15 million total housing starts for 2014. That’s up 24.5% from 2013’s total of 928,000. Single-family production is also expected to jump, with a projected rise of 32% in 2014 to 822,000 units. The NAHB projects an additional 41% jump in 2015 to 1.16 million units.

Courtesy of MPA


How can homeowners take advantage of the real estate market in 2014?


Southern California has seen home prices appreciating at steady levels in recent years.  It may be great time to look at some of the new opportunities that are presenting themselves to current Southern California homeowners in 2014. 

Back in 2011 & 2012 we had some of our clients purchasing homes with great rates and reasonable home prices. However, their intention was to move into a larger home for their growing families. With the the strong housing marketing over the last few years, it has provided some homeowners with a great opportunity to take advantage further increasing home values. Cashing in on the larger equity position allows them to put more money down on larger homes, while keeping their monthly mortgage liability affordable.  

Another scenario where increasing home values have applied to our clients are homeowners that were not able to refinance based on your homes value in 2012 or their mortgage did not qualify for the HARP refinance.  If you see on the chart I have provided you will see that the San Gabriel Valley area has increased 15% in median sales price from 2012 to 2013. Just because your home has not been upgraded or landscaped does not mean the value has not increased. Whether you are saving $100 or $500, the long-term savings of refinancing now could mean thousands of dollars in your pocket. 

Inquire today, so we can help you save for the future.